ارزیابی |هفتگی سایت کیتکو^ درباره روند طلای جهانی ((GOLD))

ارزیابی |هفتگی سایت کیتکو^ درباره روند طلای جهانی ((GOLD))

بر اساس ارزیابی هفتگی سایت کیتکو(Kitco) توقعات و پیش‌ بینی معامه گران حرفه‌ ای بازار کاملا تغییر کرده است. در این بین رئیس فدرال رزرو گفته است که اقتصاد آمریکا به پیشرفت قابل قبولی نرسیده است، تا فدرال رزرو خرید اوراق قرضه را قطع نماید. این سخن رئیس فدرال رزرو ایالات متحده به این معنی است که، فدرال رزرو احتمالا به سیاست‌های انبساطی پولی ادامه می دهد.

قیمت طلای جهانی در معاملات هفته گذشته رشد کرد و به نزدیکی اوج قیمتی شش هفته اخیر خود رسید. در بررسی هفتگی سایت کیتکو هم هیچ کدام از فعالین حرفه‌ای بازار منتظر کاهش قیمت طلای جهانی نیستند. نظر فعالین حرفه ‌ای بازار این نکته را می رساند که از نظر بازار، فدرال رزرو بیش از حد انتظار متمایل به سیاست‌های انبساطی پولی است.

در این هفته ۱۴ فعال حرفه‌ای (Wall Street) در ارزیابی هفتگی شرکت کردند. در این بین ۷۹ درصد انتظار دارند که قیمت طلای جهانی صعودی باشد. ۲۱ درصد نیز انتظار دارند که بازار بدون روند یا خنثی باشد. همچنین هیچ کدام از فعالین حرفه‌ ای شرکت کننده در این نظرسنجی انتظار روند نزولی در معاملات هفته پیش رو را نداشتند. لازم به توضیح است که در ارزیابی هفته گذشته، ۶۰ درصد فعالین حرفه‌ای انتظار روند نزولی را داشتند. در عین حال ۸۶۲ سرمایه‌گذار خرد (Main Street) نیز در نظرسنجی آنلاین شرکت کرده‌اند. ۷۰ درصد طرفدار روند صعودی، ۱۸ درصد طرفدار روند نزولی و ۱۲ درصد هم طرفدار بازار بدون روند یا خنثی بودند.

نظر کارشناسان حرفه ای بازار در مورد روند طلا در هفته پیش رو

دیوید مدن (David Madden) تحلیلگر بازار در Equiti Capital

این فعال حرفه‌ای انتظار دارد که قیمت اونس طلای جهانی به سیر صعودی خود ادامه دهد، چون‌که دلار آمریکا تحت فشار قرار دارد. از نظر او، داده‌های اقتصادی روز پنجشنبه گذشته که نشانگر رشد ضعیف ۶٫۵ درصدی GDP آمریکا بودند، می‌توانند دلار آمریکا را حداقل در میان‌مدت تضعیف کنند. رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی آمریکا در سه‌ماهه دوم سال ۲۰۲۱ خیلی ضعیف‌تر از پیش‌بینی اقتصاددانان بود. اقتصاددانان انتظار رشد ۸٫۵ درصدی را داشتند.

دارین نیوسام (Darin Newsome) تحلیلگر مستقل

طلا با وجود رالی صعودی اخیر در فاز خنثی معامله می‌شود. از نظر این فعال حرفه‌ای، طلا بین ۱۸۳۹ و ۱۷۹۳ دلار در نوسان است. بازار با ابهامات زیادی مواجه است. اگر طلا در معاملات هفته پیش رو بتواند از این فاز خنثی خارج شود، تنها به خاطر واکنش به داده‌های اشتغال ماه ژوئیه خواهد بود.

کولین سیزینسکی (Colin Cieszynski) استراتژیست ارشد بازار در SIA Wealth Management

من فکر می‌کنم که دلار آمریکا در کوتاه‌مدت تضعیف خواهد شد، اما شاید در ادامه معاملات ماه اوت بالا جهش کند.

آدام باتن (Adam Button) استراتژیست ارشد بازار در Forexlive.com

این فعال حرفه‌ای هم انتظار تضعیف ارزش دلار آمریکا را دارد. از نظر او تضعیف ارزش دلار به افزایش قیمت طلا کمک خواهد کرد. “دلار آمریکا تحت فشار قرار دارد. فشارهای تورمی تضعیف شده‌اند و فدرال رزرو آمریکا هم می‌خواهد به جای خروج از سیاست‌های انبساطی، صبر کند. اروپا هم توانسته بهتر از پیش‌بینی‌های قبلی با بحران کرونا مقابله کند.”

رشد GDP خیلی ضعیف بوده و من فکر می‌کنم که فدرال رزرو باید فعلاً از قطع برنامه خرید اوراق قرضه صرف‌نظر کند و به سیاست‌های انبساطی و حمایتی ادامه دهد. من نمی‌خواهم فروشنده دلار آمریکا باشم، اما دلار به وضعیتی رسیده که دیگر نمی‌تواند به رشد خود ادامه دهد. با تضعیف ارزش دلار آمریکا، قیمت اونس طلای جهانی می‌تواند تا ۱۹۰۰ دلار بالا بیاید. در عین حال بایستی توجه داشت که من انتظار حرکات صعودی و بزرگی از بازار طلا ندارم.

آدریان دی (Adrian Day) رئیس شرکت مدیریت دارایی

شواهد نشان می‌دهند که بانک‌های مرکزی بزرگ دنیا مثل فدرال رزرو آمریکا عجله‌ای برای خروج از سیاست‌های انبساطی پولی ندارند. فدرال رزرو با وجود بحث ها در رابطه با کاهش خرید اوراق قرضه، به افزایش ترازنامه خود ادامه می‌دهد. این خبر خیلی خوبی برای بازار طلاست. افزایش نقدینگی باعث تضعیف ارزی مثل دلار می‌شود و در نتیجه قیمت اونس طلای جهانی افزایش می‌یابد. در واقع سرعت عرضه پول از عرضه طلا پیشی می‌گیرد و طبق قضیه کمیابی، طلا با ارزش‌تر می‌شود.

World Gold Review Tuesday, June 8

World Gold Review Tuesday, June 8

The upward trend in gold prices is reversing above $ 1,900 as cows in the US dollar market return to their bids amid deteriorating market conditions. After falling sharply on Monday following Janet Yellen's recent remarks, the US dollar is now trying to recover some of that loss.

Gold ended the North American trading session with an increase of about 0.4% and its price rose from $ 1881 to about $ 1900.19. At the time of writing, the XAU / USD has risen about $ 0.13 percent, from $ 1,899 to about $ 1902.

The dollar index (DXY) fell 0.21 percent to 89.946. The US Treasury 10-year benchmark was last seen at 1.569%, down from 1.628% on Friday.

From a technical point of view, the price has reached an area of ​​horizontal resistance above the 10-day moving average. Proximity to the uptrend line in the daily timeframe is also a resistance that could limit the strong uptrend that continued on Monday.

The 4 and 20 hour moving averages are also bullish at this stage, while the 10-day moving average crosses the 20-EMA chart.

In contrast, in the hourly time frame, it is possible to correct the price to the previous resistance and cross the correction level of 38.2% Fibonacci and the moving average of 21 hours before the next move.

The main factor behind these moves could be increased optimism about coronavirus vaccination in the West and readiness to reduce the limitations caused by the epidemic. Also, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the lowest level of inflation expectations in the last six weeks in the United States, in addition to lower unemployment, were other factors contributing to this trend.

Gold analysis Wednesday, April 21

Gold analysis Wednesday, April 21

On the global gold ion weekly chart, XAUUSD is still below the resistance line and the long-term moving average at $ 1785. If the weekly ounce chart of the world gold is closed below this resistance, one can expect the price of the ounce gold to fall to the support of $ 1687. In the daily chart of the global gold ounce, we see a situation similar to the situation of the daily chart. If the global gold ounce crosses the $ 1785 resistance level, the next target of the resistance market will be $ 1855. In the four-hour chart of global gold ounces, the short-term market trend is declining and the price of global gold ounces may fall to $ 1760. But the break of the $ 1785 resistance will pave the way for the market to rise to the next resistance at $ 1805.

Trading strategy

The $ 1785 resistance will determine the next direction of the market. The failure of this resistance will change the market trend upwards. But if it can maintain its position, the market will fall to lower support.

Gold trading opportunities today - Monday, April 19

Gold trading opportunities today - Monday, April 19

Offer: Buy a deal above the point of 1766.00 with the first tick of 1784.00 and the second tick of 1796.00

Alternative offer (in case of price trend change) When the price falls below 1766.00, the price first starts moving towards 1759.00 and 1749.00.

Support and resistance points
1808.00
1796.00
1784.00

1766.00
1759.00
1749.00

Weekly Gold Analysis Saturday, April 3

Weekly Gold Analysis Saturday, April 3

The price of gold has been on the rise despite the growth of employment in the United States. In March, the United States, the world's largest economy, created 916,000 jobs. If inflation continues, will the Fed raise interest rates and reduce the attractiveness of gold for investment? The answer to this question is complicated! But first, gold must be examined technically.
According to the TCI indicator, a significant support level is formed at $ 1,738. This level is the intersection of the middle band of the Bollinger Band indicator in a four-hour time frame with levels of 23.6% weekly Fibonacci and 61.8% monthly Fibonacci.
If this support level is broken, the next target will be the level of $ 1,708. In this range, the 100-hour moving average indicator and the weekly S2 pivot hit a level of 38.2% Fibonacci monthly.

On the other hand, the first resistance level is formed at $ 1,732 (the intersection of the upper band of the Bollinger Band indicator and the level of 38.2% Fibonacci weekly).
If this resistance level is broken, the next target will be the $ 1,747 level. This resistance is formed at the intersection of the daily P2 R2 and the weekly R1.

Check the gold trend Monday, March 8

Check the gold trend Monday, March 8

The global ounce price rose 0.57% to $ 1,708 as Monday's trading session in Europe approached. Thus, the price of gold has started to rise from its 9-month low.
Given the RSI indicator reached the sell-off zone and the formation of a Dodge candlestick pattern on Friday, there is a possibility that this corrective trend will continue.
However, the bearish trend line since November 30 at $ 1,760 is a resistance.
Meanwhile, the $ 1,700 level plays the role of the first important support that if the price penetrates below this level, we can expect a fall to the downtrend line formed on August 12 at $ 1,677.
If the $ 1,677 support is broken, the price of gold will fall to the level of $ 1,670 and eventually to $ 1,610.

Technical levels
Last price of the day: $ 1707.8
Daily fluctuations: 9.6
Daytime fluctuations (٪): 0.57
Starting price: $ 1698.2
Trends
20-day moving average: $ 1779.02
50-day moving average: $ 1829.15
100-day moving average: $ 1848.59
200-day moving average: $ 1860.11
Levels
Yesterday's highest price: $ 1707.26
Yesterday's lowest price: $ 1687.37
Last week's highest price: $ 1759.98
Last week's lowest price: $ 1687.37
Last month's highest price: $ 1871.9
Last month's lowest price: $ 1717.24
Fibonacci 38.2. Daily: $ 1699.97
Fibonacci 61.8. Daily: $ 1695.16
Pivot S1 Daily: $ 1687.89
Pivot S2 Daily: $ 1677.39
Pivot S3 Daily: $ 1667.4
Pivot R1 Daily: $ 1708.18
Pivot R2 Daily: $ 1718.17
Pivot R3 Daily: $ 1728.57

Return of gold ounces from key support

Return of gold ounces from key support

On November 30, 2020, the global ounce of gold, after hitting $ 1764, started moving up to the price of $ 1959.36. Gold traders entered the market around this rate, which resulted in the beginning of a new downtrend. Recently, gold ounce price movements have been restricted between the two downtrend lines. In today's trading, the market is again supported by the price of $ 1708.64 and the price of gold has risen. If the market continues to return positively from $ 1708.6 and the ounce of gold breaks the downtrend line, one can expect the market to move to the rate of $ 1742.21, the moving average of 50 and the resistance of $ 1767.
But if the ounce of gold definitively breaks the 1708.64-1700 range, it could start a new downtrend to support at $ 1675 and then $ 1650.

Weekly Gold Analysis Sunday, February 21

Weekly Gold Analysis Sunday, February 21

Fundamental analysis of ounces of global gold

Investors and market professionals are also pessimistic about the future of gold prices after the global ounce price fell to its lowest level in eight months. The rise in US Treasury yields has been a major factor in lowering the price of an ounce of global gold. Analysts and traders are pessimistic about the future and medium-term trend of the global ounce of gold, while investors' optimism about the future of the gold market has reached its lowest level in several years. Some analysts believe that the price of an ounce of global gold could fall further in the medium term, as rising US Treasury yields could force the Federal Reserve to control the yield curve. Analysts believe that controlling the US yield curve could be to the detriment of the US dollar.
This week, 18 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly Kitco News review. 17% of respondents predict that the global gold ounce trend will be bullish. 72% predict that the market trend will be downward. Meanwhile, another 11 percent predict that the market will be trendless. Meanwhile, 1,292 Main Street investors took part in the online survey. 43% were in favor of an uptrend, 40% were in favor of a downtrend and 17% were in favor of a trend-free market.
Many analysts believe that the US Treasury bond market is the biggest threat to the gold market. Although inflationary pressures are on the rise, on the other hand, economic growth expectations are strong and therefore offset the effect of inflation expectations. These optimisms about the future of the world economy have led to an increase in US Treasury yields, which will eventually lead to an increase in real interest rates in the US economy. An increase in real interest rates is to the detriment of ounces of global gold, as it increases the opportunity cost of investing in gold.
The views of gold market professionals

Adrian Day, President of Adrian D. Asset Management Company
"The fall in the price of an ounce of world gold has been longer and deeper than I expected. "However, I think the gold market is entering a period in which long-term buyers are likely to either exit the market or refuse to re-enter the market." The professional activist went on to say that the pressure to sell ounces of global gold was too normal, but it should be noted that market price movements do not always proceed with the fundamental situation. Adrian Dee hopes to hit the gold market in the next week or two.
Ole Hansen leads Saxo Bank strategy team
This professional activist is pessimistic about the global gold ounce trend. He said that even if the fundamentals of the global ounce of gold were strong, he was still pessimistic about the future of the global ounce price. "Before the market starts to move upwards, it needs to change. "We are almost certain that inflation will grow faster than previously predicted, and when that happens, real bond yields will be balanced." According to Hansen, although the Federal Reserve is likely to control the yield curve, he believes that the Fed will not act until the rate hike hurts the US stock market.
David Madden Senior Market Strategy at CMC Markets
The activist expects the price of an ounce of global gold to fall as the rate of return on Treasury bonds rises. However, he remains optimistic about the medium-term ounce of global gold. "Increasing the yield on US Treasury bonds will draw all attention to a possible rate hike," he said. "While no central bank in the world wants to raise interest rates, there is still the possibility of an upward rally in the global ounce of gold." He added that the global ounce gold market fluctuates between $ 1,700 and $ 1,900. He does not expect the market to rise to $ 2,000, as the global economy shows signs of recovery.
Colin Cieszynski Senior Market Strategy at SIA Asset Management
According to the activist, part of the demand for gold has been lost due to the attractiveness of bitcoin and other digital currencies, especially since the price of bitcoin has risen above $ 50,000.
Marc Chandler is the CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex
The fall of the global gold ounce to $ 1,760 has driven many buyers off the market. One can expect the market to hit the range of $ 1810-1795. Crossing the global ounce price above $ 1820 could improve the technical outlook for the gold ounce. It has recently been rumored that Bitcoin is the gold of the modern world, but I do not agree with this idea. "I think it will take more time to judge."

Weekly analysis of the global Gold Saturday , February 20

Weekly analysis of the global Gold Saturday , February 2

The GOLD price of gold yesterday experienced an upward trend from the lowest level in the last seven months. Gold traded lower at $ 1,760 and rose to $ 1,790 after the official start of trading in the United States.
Gold ended the week at $ 1,780 and fell 2.35% over the past seven days. This is the worst weekly gold performance since July.
After testing the support level of $ 1,765 to $ 1,770, the price of gold was able to start a corrective trend. Stabilizing the price below this level will cause a downward trend.
Similarly, the stabilization of the price above the level of $ 1,790 can be considered a sign of the possibility of an uptrend for gold.
However, the correction in the price of gold seems limited and there is a possibility that the price will fall. Investors' risk appetite has increased as Treasury bond yields have risen. On Friday, the 10-year yield on US Treasury bonds reached a one-year high of 1.35%.

Technical levels
Last price of the day: $ 1783.54
Daily fluctuations: 8.80
Daytime fluctuations (٪): 0.5
Starting price: $ 1774.74
Trends
20-day moving average: $ 1826.92
50-day moving average: $ 1854.34
100-day moving average: $ 1865.24
200-day moving average: $ 1858.94
Levels
Yesterday's highest price: $ 1789.76
Lowest price yesterday: $ 1768.46
Last week's highest price: $ 1855.5
Last week's lowest price: $ 1807.86
Last month's highest price: $ 1959.42
Last month's lowest price: $ 1802.8
Fibonacci 38.2. Daily: $ 178.62
Fibonacci 61.8. Daily: $ 1776.6
Pivot S1 Daily: $ 1765.55
Pivot S2 Daily: $ 1756.35
Pivot S3 Daily: $ 1744.25
Pivot R1 Daily: $ 1786.85
Pivot R2 Daily: $ 1798.95
Pivot R3 Daily: $ 1808.15