ارزیابی |هفتگی سایت کیتکو^ درباره روند طلای جهانی ((GOLD))

ارزیابی |هفتگی سایت کیتکو^ درباره روند طلای جهانی ((GOLD))

بر اساس ارزیابی هفتگی سایت کیتکو(Kitco) توقعات و پیش‌ بینی معامه گران حرفه‌ ای بازار کاملا تغییر کرده است. در این بین رئیس فدرال رزرو گفته است که اقتصاد آمریکا به پیشرفت قابل قبولی نرسیده است، تا فدرال رزرو خرید اوراق قرضه را قطع نماید. این سخن رئیس فدرال رزرو ایالات متحده به این معنی است که، فدرال رزرو احتمالا به سیاست‌های انبساطی پولی ادامه می دهد.

قیمت طلای جهانی در معاملات هفته گذشته رشد کرد و به نزدیکی اوج قیمتی شش هفته اخیر خود رسید. در بررسی هفتگی سایت کیتکو هم هیچ کدام از فعالین حرفه‌ای بازار منتظر کاهش قیمت طلای جهانی نیستند. نظر فعالین حرفه ‌ای بازار این نکته را می رساند که از نظر بازار، فدرال رزرو بیش از حد انتظار متمایل به سیاست‌های انبساطی پولی است.

در این هفته ۱۴ فعال حرفه‌ای (Wall Street) در ارزیابی هفتگی شرکت کردند. در این بین ۷۹ درصد انتظار دارند که قیمت طلای جهانی صعودی باشد. ۲۱ درصد نیز انتظار دارند که بازار بدون روند یا خنثی باشد. همچنین هیچ کدام از فعالین حرفه‌ ای شرکت کننده در این نظرسنجی انتظار روند نزولی در معاملات هفته پیش رو را نداشتند. لازم به توضیح است که در ارزیابی هفته گذشته، ۶۰ درصد فعالین حرفه‌ای انتظار روند نزولی را داشتند. در عین حال ۸۶۲ سرمایه‌گذار خرد (Main Street) نیز در نظرسنجی آنلاین شرکت کرده‌اند. ۷۰ درصد طرفدار روند صعودی، ۱۸ درصد طرفدار روند نزولی و ۱۲ درصد هم طرفدار بازار بدون روند یا خنثی بودند.

نظر کارشناسان حرفه ای بازار در مورد روند طلا در هفته پیش رو

دیوید مدن (David Madden) تحلیلگر بازار در Equiti Capital

این فعال حرفه‌ای انتظار دارد که قیمت اونس طلای جهانی به سیر صعودی خود ادامه دهد، چون‌که دلار آمریکا تحت فشار قرار دارد. از نظر او، داده‌های اقتصادی روز پنجشنبه گذشته که نشانگر رشد ضعیف ۶٫۵ درصدی GDP آمریکا بودند، می‌توانند دلار آمریکا را حداقل در میان‌مدت تضعیف کنند. رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی آمریکا در سه‌ماهه دوم سال ۲۰۲۱ خیلی ضعیف‌تر از پیش‌بینی اقتصاددانان بود. اقتصاددانان انتظار رشد ۸٫۵ درصدی را داشتند.

دارین نیوسام (Darin Newsome) تحلیلگر مستقل

طلا با وجود رالی صعودی اخیر در فاز خنثی معامله می‌شود. از نظر این فعال حرفه‌ای، طلا بین ۱۸۳۹ و ۱۷۹۳ دلار در نوسان است. بازار با ابهامات زیادی مواجه است. اگر طلا در معاملات هفته پیش رو بتواند از این فاز خنثی خارج شود، تنها به خاطر واکنش به داده‌های اشتغال ماه ژوئیه خواهد بود.

کولین سیزینسکی (Colin Cieszynski) استراتژیست ارشد بازار در SIA Wealth Management

من فکر می‌کنم که دلار آمریکا در کوتاه‌مدت تضعیف خواهد شد، اما شاید در ادامه معاملات ماه اوت بالا جهش کند.

آدام باتن (Adam Button) استراتژیست ارشد بازار در Forexlive.com

این فعال حرفه‌ای هم انتظار تضعیف ارزش دلار آمریکا را دارد. از نظر او تضعیف ارزش دلار به افزایش قیمت طلا کمک خواهد کرد. “دلار آمریکا تحت فشار قرار دارد. فشارهای تورمی تضعیف شده‌اند و فدرال رزرو آمریکا هم می‌خواهد به جای خروج از سیاست‌های انبساطی، صبر کند. اروپا هم توانسته بهتر از پیش‌بینی‌های قبلی با بحران کرونا مقابله کند.”

رشد GDP خیلی ضعیف بوده و من فکر می‌کنم که فدرال رزرو باید فعلاً از قطع برنامه خرید اوراق قرضه صرف‌نظر کند و به سیاست‌های انبساطی و حمایتی ادامه دهد. من نمی‌خواهم فروشنده دلار آمریکا باشم، اما دلار به وضعیتی رسیده که دیگر نمی‌تواند به رشد خود ادامه دهد. با تضعیف ارزش دلار آمریکا، قیمت اونس طلای جهانی می‌تواند تا ۱۹۰۰ دلار بالا بیاید. در عین حال بایستی توجه داشت که من انتظار حرکات صعودی و بزرگی از بازار طلا ندارم.

آدریان دی (Adrian Day) رئیس شرکت مدیریت دارایی

شواهد نشان می‌دهند که بانک‌های مرکزی بزرگ دنیا مثل فدرال رزرو آمریکا عجله‌ای برای خروج از سیاست‌های انبساطی پولی ندارند. فدرال رزرو با وجود بحث ها در رابطه با کاهش خرید اوراق قرضه، به افزایش ترازنامه خود ادامه می‌دهد. این خبر خیلی خوبی برای بازار طلاست. افزایش نقدینگی باعث تضعیف ارزی مثل دلار می‌شود و در نتیجه قیمت اونس طلای جهانی افزایش می‌یابد. در واقع سرعت عرضه پول از عرضه طلا پیشی می‌گیرد و طبق قضیه کمیابی، طلا با ارزش‌تر می‌شود.

Weekly evaluation of Kitco site about GOLD Sunday, June 27

Weekly evaluation of Kitco site about GOLD Sunday, June 27
Is GOLD ready to climb?

According to the weekly assessment of the Kitco News site, small investors and professional market participants expect an increase in the price of an ounce of global gold in next week's trading. In last week's trading, the gold market was able to provide support below $ 1,800 and eventually ended with a one percent increase. Two weeks ago, the gold market fell $ 100 in response to a US Federal Reserve rate hike. Gold market analysts are still focusing on dollar fluctuations, treasury yields and macroeconomic data.
This week, 13 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly evaluation of the Kitco site. 53.8% predict that the global gold ounce trend will be upward. Another 23.1% predict that the market trend will be downward. The remaining 23.1% expect a trend-neutral or neutral market. 830 Main Street investors also took part in the online survey. 54.1% are in favor of an uptrend, 24.2% are in favor of a downtrend and 21.7% are in favor of a trend-free or neutral market.

Market experts comment on ounces of global gold

Marc Chandler is the CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex

"Momentum indicators are bullish and the price floor seems to be around $ 1773. If the global ounce price hovers above $ 1,800, the price floor will also be confirmed. In this case, the first target of the gold market will be the correction of 38.2% Fibonacci at $ 1820 and the 200-day moving average at $ 1833. "The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds remains around 1.50 percent, and I think the price of an ounce of global gold will rise next week."

Colin Cieszynski is a market strategist at SIA Wealth Management

The activist believes that from a technical point of view, the selling pressures in the gold market are over. "I expect buyers to enter the market next week. "It seems that the uptrend has begun."

Adrian Day, President of Adrian D. Capital Management Company

"US Federal Reserve officials are not as prone to contractionary monetary policy as the Bank of America's interest rate announcement," he said. Many have also come to the conclusion that rapid inflation will take longer than initially anticipated and may not be temporary. That is why the gold market can offset the sharp downturn after the US Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. "

Adam Button is a senior foreign exchange market strategist

"The global ounce price of gold has not been able to make a significant jump since the US Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, while the US dollar has weakened and stock indices have risen. This performance of the gold market is worrying. I'd rather wait for the next few days. "If the global ounce price does not cross $ 1,800, it will be a sell signal for the gold market."

Jim Wyckoff, Senior Technical Analyst at Kitco

Vaikov believes that the price of an ounce of world gold has been declining over the past two weeks. In his view, it is difficult to get out of this downward structure, and sales pressures are likely to intensify in the coming weeks.

 

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Last week's analysis of Kitco site about gold

 

Kitco's opinion about gold from the perspective of investors Sunday, June 6

Kitco's opinion about gold from the perspective of investors Sunday, June 6

According to Kitco News' weekly assessment, the market atmosphere is still in favor of buyers. Some analysts believe that the growth of US economic indicators will intensify inflationary pressures. However, the growth of economic indicators is not strong enough to force the US Federal Reserve to withdraw from expansionary monetary policy. Micro-investors and market traders believe that the gold market trend will tend to rise in the coming week. However, the number of fans of the downtrend is also increasing. A number of analysts have warned that the gold market is above $ 1,900 saturation.

This week, 16 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly evaluation of the Kitco site. 69% predict that the global gold ounce trend will be upward. Another 13% predict that the market trend will be downward. Meanwhile, about 19% expect a trend-free or neutral market. Also this week, 1,023 Main Street investors took part in an online poll. 54% were in favor of the uptrend, 29% were in favor of the downtrend and 17% were in favor of the neutral trend.

US employment data was released on Friday, which was generally weaker than market forecasts. The growth of the US NFP index was only 559 thousand units. The market expected growth of 645,000 units. However, wage growth last month was half a percent.

Analysis of professional gold market activists

Marc Chandler is the CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex

According to the activist, the price of an ounce of global gold grew well in response to weak US employment data. "However, in ounces of gold ounces, I tend to be a seller rather than a buyer. "MACD and stochastic indicators also indicate a bearish correction."

Adrina Day, President of Adrian Investment Management Company

"US employment data show weak employment growth. Wage growth has been good. But rising wages are raising concerns about escalating inflationary pressures. Wage growth is usually highly sticky, and NFP growth indicates that wages need to go even higher for more people to return to the job market. "This is bad news for the US dollar and good news for the ounce of global gold."

John Feneck, founder of Feneck Investment Consulting

"The break-in of the key $ 1,900 level in May reflects the long-term uptrend in the market."

Kevin Grady, President of Phoenix Futures and Options

Gardi believes that despite the bearish return of the gold market on Thursday, the market is still stable and has a strong uptrend. In his view, gold has been able to defend key protections. However, he added that this week's gold trend will be neutral. Gerdi expects the US Federal Reserve to back out of expansionary monetary policy in response to rising inflationary pressures. According to him, gold will face a serious challenge in maintaining its position above $ 1,900. "The US Federal Reserve has made a mistake in assessing the outlook for inflation, and the rapid growth of inflation will not be temporary. "Gold can rise to higher levels, but somewhere in the rally, US inflationary pressures will cause the Federal Reserve to pull back from expansionary monetary policy and halt the global gold ounce rally."

Darin Newsom Independent Market Analyst

The activist believes that because the price of an ounce of world gold could not close above the closing price of two weeks ago (in 1905), the medium-term trend of the market has changed.

Kitco's weekly [estimate] of the {gold market} Sunday, May 16

Kitco's weekly estimate of the gold market Sunday, May 16

According to Kitco News's weekly assessment, rising inflationary pressures and worries about the uncertain future of the global economy have once again supported the ounce of global gold. Gold market fluctuations increased last week. Market participants believe that the price of an ounce of global gold could exceed $ 1850. Such a move could be significant in terms of technical analysis. Especially since the $ 1850 resistance range indicates the key correction level and the 200-day moving average.
This week, 13 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly evaluation of the Kitco site. 77% predict that the ounce trend of global gold in the next week's trading will be upward. 8% predict that it will be a downward trend. Another 15% expect a trend-free or neutral market. Meanwhile, 464 Main Street investors took part in the online poll. 71% are in favor of an uptrend, 17% are in favor of a downtrend and 11% are in favor of a neutral or no trend market. This week, due to technical problems, the number of participants in the online poll was lower than in previous periods.

Expert opinion of market professionals

Robin Bhar Independent Market Analyst

"The big question on everyone's mind is whether the Fed will get out of expansionary monetary policy sooner than previously predicted due to the rapid rise in inflation," he said. Although inflation has picked up, I think the Federal Reserve can handle the situation. The longer monetary expansionary policies take, the better for gold. "As inflation curves eased, inflation could be justified, but the growth of US economic data has been unbalanced (which is why the Federal Reserve may not be paying attention to rapid inflation at this time)."

Sean Lusk is the CEO of Walsh Trading

Lusk is optimistic about the global ounce uptrend, but not because of rapid inflation, but because of escalating tensions in the Middle East. "I think the global ounce price of gold could be a destination for risk aversion," he said. "It is likely that the price of XAUUSD could cross the key level of $ 1850." He added that the ultimate target of gold is around $ 1900 and after entering the neutral phase, the upward and long-term trend of the market will be revived.

Adrian Day, President of Adrian Investment Management Company

Adrian Dee believes that as inflationary pressures intensify, investors will flock to gold to cover the risk of inflation. "The gold market has changed and investors who left the market in the second half of 2020 are entering the market again. "The Fed may reiterate that rapid inflation is temporary, but in the gold market, rapid inflation is not temporary."

Darin Newsom Independent Market Analyst

Newsam is optimistic about the medium-term ounce of global gold. According to him, the dollar will weaken further. However, he believes that the resistance of $ 1843 is a serious obstacle for the market.

Adam Button is a professional market activist

The professional believes that after a bullish break of $ 1,800, the market will enter a neutral phase for a while. "The price of an ounce of world gold has jumped well from the March price floor and now is the time for the market to rest."

Marc Chandler is the CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex

The professional activist said that although the price of an ounce of global gold has experienced good growth, caution should still be exercised. In his view, the recent rise in gold prices is a bit rapid and the market needs to improve. "It seems that the price of an ounce of global gold wants to hit the 1845-1845 resistance zone, which is the moving average of 200 days. Technical indicators have entered the saturation level. "I think a better market is better for selling than buying, but this week I will focus on treasury rate fluctuations to find new clues."

Weekly evaluation of Kitco site of gold market Sunday, April 25

Weekly evaluation of Kitco site of gold market Sunday, April 25

An ounce of global gold has failed to break above the $ 1,800 resistance, making buyers pessimistic about the future. Kitco News' weekly assessment shows that the expectations and forecasts of market professionals have changed. Last week, all market traders expected an increase in the price of an ounce of global gold, but since the market could not cross $ 1,800, everyone expects the market to fluctuate in the neutral phase for some time.

This week, 17 Wall Street activists took part in an online evaluation of the Kitco site. 41% predict that the global gold ounce trend will be neutral. Another 41% expect a trend-free market. Meanwhile, 18% of analysts predict that the global gold ounce market trend will decline. Meanwhile, 850 Main Street investors took part in the online poll. 68% were in favor of an uptrend, 28% were in favor of a downtrend and 14% were in favor of a trend-neutral market.

Last week, XAUUSD tried to reach close to $ 1,800, but good US economic data did not allow gold to grow. The US New Homes sales index rose the most in March from 2006. US PMIs also showed strong optimism in the US manufacturing and services sectors.

Analysis of market professionals

Adam Button Senior Market Strategist at Forexlive.com

"The price of an ounce of global gold has risen to around $ 1,675 after forming a twin floor and is entering a neutral phase below $ 1,800 and is resting."

Kevin Grady, President of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC

"Despite the strong recovery in the US economy, selling ounces of global gold is hard work. But as economic recovery accelerates, so will inflationary pressures. "In that case, the ounce of global gold will strengthen as inflationary pressures intensify." In terms of roundness, the medium-term trend of global gold is neutral or trendless.

Jim Wyckoff Technical Analyst at Kitko

According to Vaikov, the global ounce gold trend is still bullish. "The trend of daily charts of global gold and silver is bullish."

Adrian Day, President of Adrian D. Capital Management Company

Although the price of an ounce of global gold was expected to move in an upward straight line and this did not happen, the medium-term trend of an ounce of gold is still bullish. The price of an ounce of global gold has climbed to the top of the recent neutral range at $ 1,750. "The weakening US dollar, declining rates of return on Treasury bonds and the US government's new financial and support package have all supported the global ounce price."

Marc Chandler is the CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex

The professional activist believes that the most important risky event this week is the US Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. According to him, if the US Federal Reserve continues to be inclined to expansionary monetary policy, the price of an ounce of global gold could exceed $ 1,800.

Darin Newsom Independent Market Analyst

Darin Newsam believes that the price of an ounce of global gold could fall to support around $ 1750. "It seems that after the formation of daily return candelas on Wednesdays and Thursdays, the short-term trend of global gold ounces has changed."