تحلیل هفتگی سایت |کیتکو (Kitco) درباره طلای* جهانی: بازار هنوز هم به روند صعودی خود خوشبین! است.

تحلیل هفتگی سایت کیتکو (Kitco) درباره طلای جهانی: بازار هنوز هم به روند صعودی خود خوشبین است.

بر اساس  تحلیل هفتگی سایت کیتکو (Kitco News)، فعالین حرفه‌ای بازار و سرمایه ‌گذاران خرد توقع دارند که قیمت طلای جهانی در معاملات هفته پیش رو افزایش داشته باشد، این نظر در حالی است که مقاومت قوی در میانگین متحرک ۵۰ روز وجود دارد.

ارزیابی هفتگی سایت کیتکو حاکی از آن است که خوش‌بینی‌ها به افزایش قیمت طلا همچنان بالاست، به خصوص که قیمت طلای جهانی توانسته در نیمه معاملات هفته گذشته به بالاترین سطح قیمتی در یک ماه گذشته خود برسد. بسیاری از تحلیلگران معتقدند که افزایش فشارهای تورمی باعث افزایش قیمت خواهد شد. همچنین فدرال رزرو هم معتقد است که رشد سریع تورم موقتی بوده و نیازی به افزایش نرخ بهره یا کاهش حجم خرید اوراق قرضه نیست. باید توجه داشت که تغییر سیاست‌های پولی فدرال رزرو ریسک جدی برای بازار طلا به حساب می آید و فعلاً به نظر می‌رسد که خبری از تغییر سیاست‌های پولی نیست.

همچنین رئیس فدرال رزرو آمریکا در برابر اعضای کنگره گفته است که رشد سریع تورم در چند ماه آینده هم ادامه دارد. از نظر پاول رشد سریع تورم موقتی خواهد بود. پاول معتقد است که اوضاع اقتصادی آمریکا به گونه‌ای تغییر نداشته که شرایط برای خروج از سیاست‌های انبساطی پولی فراهم شود. او گفته است که: از نظر ما نرخ بهره فعلی مناسب شرایط اقتصادی آمریکاست. پاول بیان کرد که سیاست‌ های پولی زمانی تغییر خواهند کرد که اقتصاد آمریکا به وضعیت اشتغال کامل برسد.

در این هفته ۱۶ فعال حرفه‌ای (Wall Street) در ارزیابی هفتگی کیتکو (Kitco) شرکت داشتند. ۵۶ درصد پیش‌بینی کردند که در این هفته طلای جهانی می تواند روند صعودی داشته باشد. ۱۹ درصد دیگر انتظار داشتند که روند بازار نزولی باشد. ۲۵ درصد هم بازار را بدون روند یا خنثی براورد کردند. در همین حال ۸۳۶ سرمایه‌گذار خرد (Main Street) نیز در نظرسنجی آنلاین شرکت کرده‌اند. ۶۷ درصد طرفدار روند صعودی، ۱۷ درصد طرفدار روند نزولی و ۱۶ درصد هم طرفدار روند خنثی هستند.

 

نظر فعالین حرفه ای بازار در  مورد بازار این هفته طلای جهانی

 

آدام باتن (Adam Button) استراتژیست ارشد بازار در Forexlive.com

باتن معتقد است که با وجود اختلاف‌نظرها بر سر تورم آمریکا، ریسک‌های اقتصادی همچنان از قیمت‌های بالاتر طلا حمایت خواهند کرد. چشم‌انداز بنیادی طلا همچنان مبهم است. سیگنالی‌هایی که از فدرال رزرو، تورم و کرونای دلتا صادر می‌شود گیج کننده هستند. اما در کل همه چیز از پایین باقی ماندن نرخ بهره حکایت دارد. در بازار طلا، من فکر می‌کنم که این خبر خوبی است و باعث خواهد شد تا قیمت طلا به محدوده ۱۹۰۰ یا نزدیکی آن صعود کند.

دارین نیوسام (Darin Newsom) تحلیلگر مستقل بازار

این فعال حرفه‌ای بر خلاف سایرین به آینده بازار طلا بدبین است. او گفته که واکنش منفی طلا به مقاومت‌های کلیدی می‌تواند فشارهای فروش را در هفته پیش رو تشدید کند. از نظر او سطح کلیدی بازار در ۱۷۵۲ دلار قرار گرفته است. اگر طلا از این حمایت عبور کند، تا کف‌های قیمتی ماه مارس در زیر ۱۷۰۰ دلار پایین خواهد آمد.

آدام باتن (Adam Button) استراتژیست ارشد بازار در Forexlive.com

باتن معتقد است که با وجود اختلاف‌نظرها بر سر تورم آمریکا، ریسک‌های اقتصادی همچنان از قیمت‌های بالاتر طلا حمایت خواهند کرد. چشم‌انداز بنیادی طلا همچنان مبهم است. سیگنالی‌هایی که از فدرال رزرو، تورم و کرونای دلتا صادر می‌شود گیج کننده هستند. اما در کل همه چیز از پایین باقی ماندن نرخ بهره حکایت دارد. در بازار طلا، من فکر می‌کنم که این خبر خوبی است و باعث خواهد شد تا قیمت طلا به محدوده ۱۹۰۰ یا نزدیکی آن صعود کند.

آدریان دی (Adrian Day) رئیس شرکت مدیریت دارایی

آدریان دی طرفدار روند صعودی است. از نظر او هم‌زمان با بی‌اعتباری بانک‌های مرکزی در بازارهای مالی، طلا برای سرمایه‌گذاران جذابیت پیدا کرده است. سرمایه‌گذاران زیادی به فدرال رزرو و سایر بانک‌های مرکزی دنیا بی‌اعتماد شده‌اند. در واقع برخلاف فدرال رزرو، سرمایه‌گذاران به این نتیجه رسیده‌اند که رشد تورم قوی و ادامه‌دار خواهد بود.

میشل مور (Michael Moor) مؤسس Moor Analytics

این فعال حرفه‌ای هم نسبت به روند میان‌مدت بازار طلا بدبین است و منتظر واکنش بازار به محدوده ۱۷۵۰ دلاری است.

مارک چندلر (Marc Chandler) مدیر شرکت Bannockburn Global Forex

هر چند که مارک چندلر فکر می‌کند که قیمت اونس طلای جهانی افزایش یافته و تشکیل اوج داده، اما از نظر او طلا این قدرت را دارد که تا مقاومت ۱۸۵۰ دلاری بالا بیاید.

کوین گردی (Kevin Grady) رئیس شرکت Phoenix Futures and Options LLC

این فعال حرفه‌ای گفته که بعد از صعود قیمت اونس طلای جهانی به اوج یک ماهه، بازار با مقاومت‌های تکنیکالی مواجه شده و نتوانسته از میانگین متحرک ۵۰ روز در ۱۸۳۷ دلار عبور کند. از نظر او، روند طلا خنثی است. با این حال طلا توانسته موقعیت خود را به خوبی در بالای میانگین متحرک ۲۰۰ روز حفظ کند.

بسیاری از سرمایه‌گذاران در تلاش هستند تا قیمت منصفانه اونس طلای جهانی را پیدا کنند. به نظر می‌رسد که از نظر بازار قیمت منصفانه فعلی بازار در اطراف ۱۸۰۰ دلار قرار گرفته است. گردی در ادامه گفته که به معامله فروش در بازار طلا فکر نمی‌کند، چون‌که وضعیت بنیادی طلا قوی است. واقعیت این است که رشد تورم سریع بوده، سیاست‌های انبساطی در حال  اجراست و ارزهای اصلی هم در حال تضعیف هستند، به همین دلیل قیمت طلا باید بیشتر از این بالا بیاید.

Weekly evaluation of Kitco site of gold market ,May 3

Weekly evaluation of Kitco site of gold market ,May 3

Disappointment is back in the global gold ounce market. The XAUUSD price could not cross the $ 1,800 resistance. At the same time, inflationary pressures are intensifying, expansionary monetary policies continue to be strong, and governments are seeking to increase their spending. According to Kitco News, analysts have warned that lower global ounce prices should be prepared for lower prices in such circumstances. However, many analysts believe that the recent price cut is just a pullback to support and will provide a new opportunity to buy.
This week, 15 Wall Street activists took part in a weekly evaluation of the Kitco site. Fifty-three percent predict that the global ounce gold trend will be bullish in next week's trading. Another 47% predict that the market will be trendless or neutral. None of the market professionals expect a downward trend in the short term. Meanwhile, 954 Main Street investors took part in the online survey. 54% are in favor of an uptrend, 26% are in favor of a downtrend and 20% are in favor of a trend-neutral market.
Some analysts believe that gold failed to break $ 1800, but at the same time managed to defend the support of $ 1750. For this reason, market participants see last week's price drop as an opportunity to buy gold at lower prices.

Opinions of traders and investors about ounces of global gold

Ole Hansen is a commodity market strategist at Saxo Bank

"Gold has again disappointed its investors."

Adrian Day, President of Adrian D. Capital Management Company

"The price of an ounce of global gold should pull back to $ 1745. Gold broke the $ 1745 resistance in early April. This resistance prevented further growth of gold prices for two months. It is better that the market responds to this resistance as soon as possible in the form of support. The long-term trend of global gold ounces is bullish. "Inflationary pressures have intensified, and the Federal Reserve does not want to counteract the rise in inflation by raising interest rates or exiting the bond-buying program."

Marc Chandler is the CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex

The professional activist believes that if the market does not defend the support of $ 1750, the price of a global ounce of gold could fall to $ 1724. "Technically, the short-term trend of the global ounce of gold tends to decline. "Gold is approaching the $ 1,752 support area, which includes a 38.2% correction in the April Fibonacci rally." Although the long-term ounce of global gold is bullish for the professional activist, gold has performed poorly compared to copper, the stock market and even bitcoin. "There are strong risk aversions in the parallel gold markets and no one likes to wait for gold to grow in this situation. "Investors have better options to buy."

Weekly Gold Ratings at Kitco Sunday, April 11

According to Kitco News, optimism has been boosted again by rising global gold prices. An ounce of global gold has been able to defend its previous support and seems to be looking to cross the key and psychological level of $ 1750. That's why market participants expect the global medium-term ounce trend to be bullish. However, some analysts have warned that it is too early to talk about the XAUUSD uptrend.

This week, 15 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly evaluation of the Kitco site. Meanwhile, 60% of participants predict that the global gold ounce trend will be bullish. Another 20 percent predict a downtrend and the rest expect a trend-free or neutral market. Meanwhile, 1,201 Main Street investors took part in an online poll. 65% are in favor of an uptrend, 20% are in favor of a downtrend and 16% are in favor of a trend-free market.

Optimism for a short-term uptrend also strengthened among small investors and market traders after the global ounce price of key support jumped below $ 1,700. Last week, the price of an ounce of global gold climbed to around $ 1760, however, it ended the week below $ 1750. On Friday, we saw intensifying sales pressures in the gold market. The rise in Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar in response to PPI data (manufacturing sector inflation) were the main reasons for the slight decline in the global ounce gold price. Inflation in the US manufacturing sector reached 4.2 percent per year, the fastest growth since September 2011.

Comments of market participants

Adam Button Senior Market Strategist at Forexlive.com

The closing of the global gold price above $ 1755 could be a confirmation of the formation of the twin floor pattern. In this case, the price of an ounce of world gold will rise to $ 1840. "But if the price of an ounce of global gold fails to rise, it will fall to $ 1,676 and below."

Charlie Nedoss Senior Market Strategy at LaSalle Futures Group

This professional activist no longer pays attention to the widespread selling pressures in the treasury securities market (rising bond yields). In his view, the Federal Reserve is not looking to raise interest rates in the near future. "The Fed wants to see real growth in economic indicators and then think about raising interest rates. I think this will stop the US dollar from rising and support the ounce of global gold. "Especially since the US dollar has not yet been able to stay above the 200-day moving average." Ndos is optimistic about the increase in the price of an ounce of global gold. Gold was able to maintain its position above the 200-day moving average. "Gold has hit the price floor of the oscillating range and it seems that this time it is time to touch the ceiling of this range. "I expect the price of an ounce of global gold to cross the $ 1760 resistance level."

Darin Newsom Independent Market Analyst

According to the activist, at least in the medium term, the rising strength of the US dollar has weakened. According to him, the probability that the price of an ounce of world gold will reach higher levels is serious. Gold and the US dollar are inversely related.

Marc Chandler, Senior Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex

This professional activist is not very optimistic about the upward and short-term trend of gold. "Next week, the rise in the value of the US dollar and the rate of return on Treasury bonds may prevent the price of an ounce of gold from rising. US economic and inflation data are on the rise. The break in the $ 1730-1728 support area could push the global ounce price up to $ 1,700.

Adrian Day, Director of Adrian Investment Company

The professional activist believes that the trend of global ounce of gold in the coming week will be neutral. According to him, the market will fluctuate in a limited range. "I doubt gold can make a significant move in the next few weeks," he said. "I think the price of gold will fluctuate between $ 1,680 and $ 1,745."

Weekly gold valuation on the Kitco site Wednesday, March 31

Weekly gold valuation on the Kitco site Wednesday, March 31

The gold market continues to defend support at $ 1,700, but has not yet seen a strong uptrend. According to Kitco News' weekly assessment, the uptrend is almost the same, especially since the price of an ounce of global gold could not cross the key resistance of $ 1750. However, among professional activists, there have been slightly more supporters of the downtrend. However, many analysts believe that a drop in the price of an ounce of global gold could provide a good opportunity for long-term buying.
This week, 16 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly evaluation of the Kitco site. 44% predict that the global gold ounce trend will be upward. Another 50 percent expect a downtrend. Another 6% predict that the market trend will be neutral. Meanwhile, 807 Main Street investors took part in an online poll. 47% are in favor of an uptrend, 32% are in favor of a downtrend and 22% are in favor of a neutral trend. Although small investors are a little optimistic about the future of the market, it should be noted that the turnout in last week's poll has reached its lowest level since early May 2020.
The price of an ounce of global gold fluctuates between $ 1,700 and $ 1,750. For many traders, the ounce of global gold futures depends on the trend of the dollar and the yield on US Treasury bonds. US Treasury yields are near a one-year high.
The views of market professionals

Lukman Otunuga Senior Market Analyst at FXTM
"Rapid vaccination in the United States has boosted optimism about rapid economic growth in the United States and boosted demand for the US dollar. If the US dollar continues to rise, the price of an ounce of global gold will fall. Currently the technical situation of the market is in favor of the sellers. Closing the market below $ 1730 will push the price of an ounce of global gold to $ 1700.
Adam Button Leads Forexlive.com Strategy Team
Adam Button has also focused on US dollar fluctuations. "I do not think now is the right time to buy gold. There are positive signs of a growing US dollar. "The strengthening of the US dollar could be to the detriment of gold."
Jim Wyckoff, Senior Technical Analyst at Kitco
Jim Vaikov is the only market analyst who expects a trend-free or neutral market. However, in his view, the market is a bit downward.
Charlie Nedoss Senior Market Strategy at LaSalle Futures Group
The activist believes that as long as the price of gold is above the moving average of 20, he is optimistic about the future of the gold market. The average is around $ 1725. "If the world ounce price of gold can keep the 20-day moving average, we can expect the price of gold to rise above $ 1,750." According to Nodos, the yield on Treasury bonds and the US dollar may have peaked in the medium term. This means that in the medium term, both bond yields and the value of the US dollar will fall and the conditions for the growth of an ounce of global gold will be smoothed out.
Daniel Pavilonis Senior Market Strategy at RJO Futures
This professional activist is optimistic about the medium-term trend of ounces of global gold. According to this professional activist, pessimism about the future of the market has increased and this may be a good opportunity to start buying gold.

Weekly Gold Analysis Monday, March 1

Weekly Gold Analysis Monday, March 1

Last week, the price of an ounce of global gold fell close to $ 100 and fell to $ 1720. This is the lowest price in an ounce of gold in the last eight months. According to the weekly assessment of Kitco News, it seems that from the point of view of market professionals, the decline in the price of an ounce of global gold is not over yet. In the coming week, all eyes will be on changes in the rate of return on Treasury bonds and the US dollar. Recently, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen to more than 1.6 percent.
This week, 13 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly evaluation. 61.5% predict that this week's trend of global gold ounces will be declining. 23% of participants also predict that the short-term trend of global gold ounces will be upward. The remaining 15.5% expect a trend-neutral or neutral market. Meanwhile, 669 Main Street investors took part in the online poll. 52.5% were in favor of an uptrend, 33.3% were in favor of a downtrend and 14.2% were in favor of a trend-free market. This is the lowest level of micro-investor participation in an online survey in the past year. According to market analysts, the key support for global gold is at $ 1,700, and the continued decline of the market depends on the reaction of gold to this support.
Perspectives of Gold Market Professionals (XAUUSD)

Colin Cieszynski Senior Market Strategy at SIA Wealth Management
"The US dollar appears to be making up for recent declines, especially as investors focus on increasing Treasury yields." The price of an ounce of global gold is inversely related to the value of the US dollar. This means that the strengthening of the US dollar is to the detriment of the global ounce gold price.
Marc Chandler is the CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex
The recent bullish ounce of global gold has disappeared and the price of an ounce of global gold has fallen below the simple moving average of 20 days. The rise in US Treasury yields has hurt gold. XAUUSD's next target is to correct 61.8% of Fibonacci near $ 1,690. I doubt the market will move in this direction in the medium term. However, I will not be surprised by the neutral and wide fluctuations of the gold market. "
Adrian Day, President of Adrian D. Capital Management Company
"Next week you can see the latest efforts of sellers in the market. From a fundamental point of view, the situation is in favor of ounces of global gold, especially since there is a lot of liquidity in the world. The dollar index has only recorded an upward jump in response to the recent price peaks, meaning that the dollar index is still declining. In the US bond market, while long-term bond yields have risen, short-term bond yields are still low and the real interest rate on the US economy is negative. "Most importantly, the market needs a strong one-sided move to change the expectations and inclinations of investors."
Mark Leibovit Editor-in-Chief V.R. Metals / Resource
This professional activist is most pessimistic about the future of the gold market. He believes that the price of an ounce of global gold may fall as low as $ 1,500. "There are a lot of buyers in the market. The technical situation of the market is either neutral or declining. "So can the market fall to $ 1,500?"
Ole Hansen is a commodity market strategist at Saxo Bank
"For the first time in four weeks, I expect the global ounce price to rise." He attributed the optimism to gold prices to the US stock market reaction to the rate of return on Treasury bonds. "Increasing the rate of return on treasury bonds has also affected other financial markets. This means that investors will soon start thinking about buying safe and secure assets. The Fed's views are likely to be challenged in the coming weeks (Powell did not take the rise in Treasury yields seriously, saying the increase was due to optimism about the US economy, not inflation expectations). The US economy can not tolerate high rates of return, and the resurgence of bond yields could make investors think that the US Federal Reserve may have to control the yield curve in the near future. In that case, the real rate of return and the value of the US dollar will fall and the price of an ounce of global gold will fall sharply.

Weekly Gold Analysis Monday, February 7

Weekly Gold Analysis Monday, February 7

The ounce of global gold in mid-August 2018, in the form of support hit $ 1160 and started a new bullish rally, so that the price of gold rose to $ 2075 over two years. This is a historic price point for gold. The upward movement of gold stopped after hitting the range of 2050-2075 and then we saw the entry of ounces of gold into the downtrend channel, so that the market moved to the moving average of 50.
The ounce of gold was resisted by $ 1875 and the moving average of 20, which resulted in the market moving to an average of 50. An ounce of gold has returned to the upside after each hit. So in this week's trading, if the 50-day moving average and the $ 1800 trend are turned into support, one can expect the market to return to the 20-day moving average, the $ 1875 level and finally the channel ceiling. The failure of the channel resistance can make the presence of gold buyers in the market more colorful.
But if the ounce of gold breaks the $ 1800 trend and the average of $ 50, the downtrend will pave the way around the $ 1700 trend.

 

Activists and investors in the global gold ounce market are skeptical about the future of the market, according to a weekly assessment by Kitco News. Although the majority of market traders expect the price of an ounce of global gold to rise in the coming weeks, among small investors, supporters of the uptrend are less than 50%.
Meanwhile, the price of an ounce of silver has returned below $ 27 and all growth since the beginning of last week has disappeared. The price of silver has fallen after reaching the highest price of the last eight years. The fall in the price of silver has negatively affected the views and expectations of retail investors. Analysts believe that small investors' pessimism about the silver market has spread to the global ounce gold market. Micro-investors, most influenced by the social network, expected a rapid return to the silver market, and this frustration may spread to the gold market.
This week, 14 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly evaluation of the Kitco site. 64% predict that this week's trend will be an upward ounce of global gold. Another 29% predict that the market trend will be downtrend and another 7% expect the market to be trending or neutral. A total of 1,823 Main Street activists took part in the online poll. 48% are in favor of the uptrend, 31% are in favor of the downtrend and 21% are in favor of the neutral trend.
Kitco's online poll shows that micro-investor pessimism about the global ounce trend has reached its highest level since late November. At that time, the price of an ounce of world gold had fallen below $ 1,800. Last week, professional activists and small investors expected the price of an ounce of global gold to rise. However, the ounce price of global gold fell by almost 2%.