Gold trading opportunities today - Monday, April 19
Offer: Buy a deal above the point of 1766.00 with the first tick of 1784.00 and the second tick of 1796.00
Alternative offer (in case of price trend change) When the price falls below 1766.00, the price first starts moving towards 1759.00 and 1749.00.
Support and resistance points
1808.00
1796.00
1784.00
1766.00
1759.00
1749.00
The three main drivers of the financial markets in the coming week
Global financial market traders and investors are facing a busy week. Macroeconomic data along with corporate financial statements will be the main driver of the market. In the meantime, three main and key questions have occupied the minds of market participants.
Will the rapid growth of inflation become a big problem?
Inflationary pressures have long worried investors. Rising demand, coronary disruptions in supply and rising production costs could significantly increase inflation in 2021. Last week, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose faster than market forecasts. Many analysts believe that the rapid growth of inflation is not the only problem of the US economy and the whole world will be affected by the rapid growth of inflation.
But it is not yet clear whether inflationary pressures will be temporary, according to the Federal Reserve. Now everyone is worried that inflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector will soon spread to the consumer sector. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released this week. The rapid rise in inflation can lead to an increase in the yield on treasury bonds and the fall of risky assets such as stocks.
As the US economy returns to its full potential and coronary restrictions are lifted, it remains to be seen to what extent American consumers are satisfied with the status quo and confident in their financial future. In the Corona crisis, the US government spent a variety of financial packages to support the consumer sector, and recent US employment growth has been remarkable. Because of this, American consumers may be more inclined to spend. The US retail index is expected to jump sharply. Growing consumer spending could be good news for stock markets. But if the retail index does not grow despite rising inflation, the worst-case scenario for the US stock market will be realized. In this scenario, the US economy will face a stagflation.
The financial statements of the stock companies will be published this week and the main focus of the market will be on the banking industry. Major US banking and investment corporate reports are released on Wednesday, and if these reports are promising, we can expect strong risk aversion in the stock market.
Ripple's second legal victory over the SEC boosted it by 17 percent Saturday, April 10
Ripple has won its second major victory in the past week in its legal battle against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The judge in the case, Sarah Netborn, barred the Securities and Exchange Commission from accessing the personal financial records of Ripple Board executives Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen.
Following this news, the price of XRP has increased significantly and was able to reach $ 1.18 with a growth of 17%. At the time of writing, XRP is trading in exchanges at $ 1.16 with a market cap of $ 51.9 billion. With this move, XRP took the place of Tetr with a weekly growth of 76%.
Weekly gold valuation on the Kitco site Wednesday, March 31
The gold market continues to defend support at $ 1,700, but has not yet seen a strong uptrend. According to Kitco News' weekly assessment, the uptrend is almost the same, especially since the price of an ounce of global gold could not cross the key resistance of $ 1750. However, among professional activists, there have been slightly more supporters of the downtrend. However, many analysts believe that a drop in the price of an ounce of global gold could provide a good opportunity for long-term buying.
This week, 16 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly evaluation of the Kitco site. 44% predict that the global gold ounce trend will be upward. Another 50 percent expect a downtrend. Another 6% predict that the market trend will be neutral. Meanwhile, 807 Main Street investors took part in an online poll. 47% are in favor of an uptrend, 32% are in favor of a downtrend and 22% are in favor of a neutral trend. Although small investors are a little optimistic about the future of the market, it should be noted that the turnout in last week's poll has reached its lowest level since early May 2020.
The price of an ounce of global gold fluctuates between $ 1,700 and $ 1,750. For many traders, the ounce of global gold futures depends on the trend of the dollar and the yield on US Treasury bonds. US Treasury yields are near a one-year high.
The views of market professionals
Lukman Otunuga Senior Market Analyst at FXTM
"Rapid vaccination in the United States has boosted optimism about rapid economic growth in the United States and boosted demand for the US dollar. If the US dollar continues to rise, the price of an ounce of global gold will fall. Currently the technical situation of the market is in favor of the sellers. Closing the market below $ 1730 will push the price of an ounce of global gold to $ 1700.
Adam Button Leads Forexlive.com Strategy Team
Adam Button has also focused on US dollar fluctuations. "I do not think now is the right time to buy gold. There are positive signs of a growing US dollar. "The strengthening of the US dollar could be to the detriment of gold."
Jim Wyckoff, Senior Technical Analyst at Kitco
Jim Vaikov is the only market analyst who expects a trend-free or neutral market. However, in his view, the market is a bit downward.
Charlie Nedoss Senior Market Strategy at LaSalle Futures Group
The activist believes that as long as the price of gold is above the moving average of 20, he is optimistic about the future of the gold market. The average is around $ 1725. "If the world ounce price of gold can keep the 20-day moving average, we can expect the price of gold to rise above $ 1,750." According to Nodos, the yield on Treasury bonds and the US dollar may have peaked in the medium term. This means that in the medium term, both bond yields and the value of the US dollar will fall and the conditions for the growth of an ounce of global gold will be smoothed out.
Daniel Pavilonis Senior Market Strategy at RJO Futures
This professional activist is optimistic about the medium-term trend of ounces of global gold. According to this professional activist, pessimism about the future of the market has increased and this may be a good opportunity to start buying gold.
USDJPY Thursday, February 11
The technical outlook for the USDJPY has not changed and the short-term trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen is neutral. From the sellers' point of view, the definite failure of the support of 104.39 indicates the end of the corrective movement starting from 102.58 at 105.76. In this case, the short-term trend of USDJPY will be down to the support of 103.31. However, if the pair moves above 105.76, it could push the market to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 106.06.
Two strong signals in the capital market
Possibilities about increasing refinery feed discounts
Unconfirmed news that shook refining stocks
There are rumors of increased feed discounts for the refining industry; It seems that the market attention in recent days to refining symbols is not so unrelated to this unofficial news.
The government is a shareholder in the refineries, and these companies are more likely to approve further discounts to support the industry as well as the capital market. The government should reorganize the "refining fund" project, and some news sources say it is seeking to gain the lost trust of investors in the state-owned fund.
Since the National Refining and Distribution Company has not yet announced the approved feed rates and prices of the five main products for the refining companies' financial statements, it is likely that these rumors will be confirmed.
Increase feed discounts for the refining industry at the summit
In the same petroanalysis, news sources announced the possibility of raising the issue of increasing feed discounts for the refining industry at the summit. Of course, nothing is certain about the news of the refinements, but it seems that the proposals were based on 5%, and it seems that any number approved would be two strong signals for the market; The first is to help the market as a whole and the second is to increase the flow of profits in refineries.
Unconfirmed about steels and petrochemicals
An informed source in the Parliamentary Budget Consolidation Commission told the Fooladban website about the latest approvals of the commission on the steel and petrochemical industry: "According to the decision of the Joint Commission, the energy price of steel and petrochemical industries will be calculated next year based on FOB Persian Gulf."
The informed source further stated: So far, it has been approved that electricity, water and gas of petrochemical and steel units be calculated based on the FOB of the Persian Gulf, and 18 thousand billion Tomans of revenue has been seen in next year's budget from the release of energy and food of these units. .
The resolution of the Joint Commission will be finalized by the end of tonight and will go to the public for approval.
The parliament seems to believe that the steel and petrochemical industries export their products by receiving cheap feed and have disrupted the domestic market. On the other hand, the huge profits of these companies are spent in a non-transparent manner in certain cases.
Earlier, news about the elimination of steelmakers' energy subsidies in next year's budget and then a 50% discount to calculate the energy costs of steelmakers was published in the media.
