EURUSD trend analysis Monday, June 28
The short-term trend of the euro against the US dollar(EURUSD) is neutral. According to sellers, a break of $ 1,1846 could push the downtrend starting from $ 1,265 to the support of $ 1,1703. In the eyes of buyers, if the EURUSD pair crosses above the four-hour moving average of 55 days at $ 1.1967, the short-term market trend will rise to the resistance of $ 1.2265.
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Is the euro coming out of the neutral phase?
The short-term trend of the Euro against the US Dollar is neutral and the EURUSD pair fluctuates above the rate of $ 1,1846. According to sellers, a break of $ 1,1846 could push the downtrend starting from $ 1,265 to the support of $ 1,1703. In the eyes of buyers, if the EURUSD pair crosses above the four-hour moving average of 55 days at $ 1.1976, the short-term trend of the market will rise to the resistance of $ 1.2265.
EURUSD analysis Tuesday, March 16
The short-term trend of the euro against the US dollar is neutral. From the buyers' point of view, if the EURUSD pair crosses above the $ 1.89 slight resistance, the 55-day moving average at $ 1,2049 will be the next target of the market. A definite break of these levels will mark the end of the correctional movement starting from $ 1,2348 and the EURUSD will be ready to hit the price peak again. However, from the sellers' point of view, the failure of $ 1,1834 will pave the way for the market to correct 38.2% Fibonacci at $ 1,1694.
Check the EURUSD trend
The short-term trend of the euro against the US dollar is declining. An uptrend starting at $ 1,2348 could push the EURUSD pair to the 100% Fibonacci level at $ 1,1845. EURUSD is expected to form a price floor around these levels. From the buyers' point of view, if the EURUSD crosses above the $ 1.90 resistance level, the short-term market trend will be neutralized. A break of resistance at $ 1,212 will confirm the formation of a short-term price floor. However, if the EURUSD falls below $ 1.1845, the downtrend will pave the way for the Fibonacci 38.2% correction at $ 1.1694.
Fundamental analysis of the euro area economy
The European Central Bank (ECB) held a meeting last week without any changes in monetary policy. However, members of the European Central Bank are expected to prepare the market for monetary policy changes in the coming weeks. At present, the European Central Bank deposit rate is negative 0.5 percent and it is clear that there is no room for further interest rate cuts. In terms of the market, the chance of interest rates falling to minus 0.6 percent by the end of 2021 is almost 70 percent. However, if the European Central Bank officials point to a reduction in interest rates in the coming days, the euro will weaken. However, the downward movement of the EURUSD pair may be limited.
From a fundamental analysis point of view, lower interest rates could not have a significant positive effect on the euro area economy. In addition, the European Central Bank has focused on the fluctuations of the EURUSD currency pair. If the euro strengthens, the eurozone's economic recovery will be hampered. But a weakening euro could support the eurozone's export-oriented economy. The fact of the matter is that the European Central Bank is a long way from intensifying monetary expansionary policies, and the market knows this. In addition, the European Central Bank opposes the strengthening of the euro. Therefore, perhaps any change in interest rate expectations will have a limited effect on the EURUSD pair.
As interest rate expectations do not have a significant impact on the market, euro area economic data is expected to have a similar effect. However, new euro area GDP data will be released this week. Below are the inflation data. At the end of the week, the final assessment of PMI, unemployment rate and retail index will be published.
EURUSD pair trend
The short-term trend of the Euro against the US Dollar is up to a slight resistance of $ 1,2222. The break of this resistance could push the EURUSD pair to the high of $ 1,2348. However, from the traders' point of view, if EURUSD falls below the support of $ 1,2052, it could indicate the entry of the currency pair into the correction phase starting from the rate of $ 1,2348. In this case, the short-term trend of EURUSD will fall to $ 1.1887 at the correction of 61.8% Fibonacci.
