Weekly evaluation of Kitco site from the expectations of gold market investors Tuesday, March 9

Weekly evaluation of Kitco site from the expectations of gold market investors  Tuesday, March 9

The strengthening dollar, the jump in Treasury yields and investor optimism about strong US economic growth have pushed down the price of an ounce of global gold. Kitco News 'weekly assessment also shows market participants' pessimism about the future of the gold market. Now the question that has occupied the minds of most market participants is how much will the rate of return on treasury bonds increase?
This week, 13 Wall Street activists took part in the weekly evaluation of the Kitco site. 29% predict that this week's trend will be an upward ounce of global gold. 57% predict that the market trend will be downtrend and another 14% expect the market to be trending or neutral. Meanwhile, 1,482 Main Street investors took part in the online survey. 40% are in favor of an uptrend, 44% are in favor of a downtrend and 16% are in favor of a trend-free market.
On Friday, the price of an ounce of global gold reached the support of $ 1680. The strong growth of 379 thousand NFP units was the main reason for the fall in the price of an ounce of global gold. US employment growth was much higher than market forecasts. Despite the fact that the price of an ounce of world gold rose from the price floor on Friday, XAUUSD ended the week in the negative range. As US economic performance improves, some analysts believe that Treasury yields could rise further. Especially since the US Federal Reserve has no problem raising the rate of return on Treasury bonds. The head of the Federal Reserve has said that raising interest rates alone is not enough to raise interest rates and exit expansionary monetary policy. It does not seem to matter to the US Federal Reserve what the rate of return on Treasury bonds is.
The views of gold market professionals

Phillip Streible is the senior market strategist at Blue Line Futures
"Whenever the rate of return on treasury bonds peaks, there will be a price floor in ounces of global gold."
Darin Newsome President of Darin Newsom Analysis
"The views of the head of the US Federal Reserve mean that the rate of return on Treasury bonds could rise further without the central bank intervening. "Increasing the rate of return on treasury bonds will put pressure on the price of an ounce of global gold."
Ole Hansen leads the commodity strategy team at Saxo Bank
The market activist expects the global ounce price to rise in the medium term. According to him, the price of an ounce of global gold has been able to maintain its support in the 11-month price floor. However, in the opinion of this professional activist, the challenges facing gold buyers are not over yet. "The price of an ounce of global gold will not rise until the yield on Treasury bonds and the US dollar reaches equilibrium. The Federal Reserve also has no plans to deal with rising Treasury yields. In other words, for the Federal Reserve to get involved, the country's financial system will face a significant increase in borrowing costs and will suffer a lot. "
Adrian Day, President of Adrian D. Capital Management Company
Adrian Day still hopes for an ounce of global gold, as long as fundamental issues support the price of an ounce of global gold. He believes that the strong growth of the dollar and the rate of return on treasury bonds will hurt the price of an ounce of global gold. "As long as the dollar trend and the rate of return on treasury bonds are bullish, the situation will be difficult for gold buyers. "At the moment I am just watching the situation and I will enter the market at reasonable prices."
Colin Cieszynski SIA Wealth Management Senior Market Strategy
The global gold ounce price will also be under pressure until inflation rises to significant levels, the activist said. He believes that other than gold, commodities are rising in price, which means that inflationary pressures will soon intensify.

Bitcoin Analysis (BTC) Wednesday, February 17

Bitcoin Analysis (BTC) Wednesday, February 17

Bitcoin prices regained their uptrend and broke the $ 50,000 resistance. BTC is maintaining a profit and seems to be moving further towards 52000.

Expand profitability

The price of bitcoin finally managed to cross the $ 50,000 resistance area. BTC climbed above the $ 50,200 and $ 50,500 levels and traded at the new $ 50,600 level before correcting the downtrend. There was a Sharpe correction below the $ 50,000 level. The price even fell below the $ 49,000 support level. However, the cows were able to stay close to the $ 48,000 area and the simple 100-hour moving average. A floor formed near the level of $ 47,819 and the price is currently rising.

Bitcoin above the Fibonacci retracement level trades 50% down from the $ 50,000 to $ 47,819. There was also a break above the key contraction triangle with resistance near 49,500 on the BTC / USD chart.
 The price trades well above $ 50,000 and is completely above the simple moving average of 100 hours and is testing the Fibonacci retracement level of 76.4% downward from the $ 50,000 swing ceiling to the $ 47,819 floor.

It seems that the upward trend of the price towards the ceiling of $ 50,600 will continue. A further climb could easily push the price towards the 51000 level. The next key resistance is at $ 52,000.

BTC fall again?

If Bitcoin fails to stay above the $ 50,000 and $ 50,200 levels, a bearish correction will occur. Initial support is near the $ 49,500 level and the broken triangle trend line.

A break below $ 49,500 could push the price towards $ 48,000 support. The simple 100-hour moving average is also set to support close to $ 48,000.

 Technical indicators:

Indicator of moving average convergence Hourly divergence in the cattle area.

The hourly relative strength index is currently above the 50 level.

Main support levels: $ 49,500 and then $ 49,000.

Main resistance levels: $ 50,000, $ 51,000 and $ 52,000.

Fundamental analysis of the euro area economy

Fundamental analysis of the euro area economy

The European Central Bank (ECB) held a meeting last week without any changes in monetary policy. However, members of the European Central Bank are expected to prepare the market for monetary policy changes in the coming weeks. At present, the European Central Bank deposit rate is negative 0.5 percent and it is clear that there is no room for further interest rate cuts. In terms of the market, the chance of interest rates falling to minus 0.6 percent by the end of 2021 is almost 70 percent. However, if the European Central Bank officials point to a reduction in interest rates in the coming days, the euro will weaken. However, the downward movement of the EURUSD pair may be limited.
From a fundamental analysis point of view, lower interest rates could not have a significant positive effect on the euro area economy. In addition, the European Central Bank has focused on the fluctuations of the EURUSD currency pair. If the euro strengthens, the eurozone's economic recovery will be hampered. But a weakening euro could support the eurozone's export-oriented economy. The fact of the matter is that the European Central Bank is a long way from intensifying monetary expansionary policies, and the market knows this. In addition, the European Central Bank opposes the strengthening of the euro. Therefore, perhaps any change in interest rate expectations will have a limited effect on the EURUSD pair.
As interest rate expectations do not have a significant impact on the market, euro area economic data is expected to have a similar effect. However, new euro area GDP data will be released this week. Below are the inflation data. At the end of the week, the final assessment of PMI, unemployment rate and retail index will be published.